NFL Draft Best Bets

Ok, we're back again with some NFL Draft best bets. We went 6-0 on our best bets for the combine. While replicating that is unlikely, I feel good about netting positive with the picks below. 

Number of quarterbacks selected in the top 5 picks: Over 2.5 (-170)

The Browns and Jets are widely believed to be taking quarterbacks at the 1 and 3 spots, respectively. The Broncos are in the QB mix at 5. It is also entirely possible that the Giants (2nd), Browns (4th) or Broncos could trade their picks to a team like the Bills or Dolphins that want to move up and get their QB. 

Number of quarterbacks selected in the first round: Over 4.5 (-170)

No less than three quarterbacks should go in the top 10 picks and Lamar Jackson more than likely comes off the board before pick 20 (his over/under is 17.5). Under that scenario, this bet would hit comfortably by several picks and there's still a possibility at team could move up to nab Mason Rudolph in the late first.

Number of wide receivers selected in the first round: Under 4.5 (-160)

This is the best bet of this group. Some sportsbooks have this number at 2.5 and I could see it as low as 2. DJ Moore and Calvin Ridley are the two main wideouts in play and neither are expected go in the top half of the first round. Should the Cowboys opt to take a linebacker like Leighton Vander Esch at 19, the odds of even two WR going in the first drops considerably. I wouldn't be stunned to see Ridley fall a bit either, considering his poor testing numbers. There was general surprise when Dalvin Cook fell out of the first last year following a similarly dreadful combine performance (which is a significant factor with first round picks). While I still think Ridley goes in the first, it's not a foregone conclusion. Additionally, there's a glut of WR projected to go in the second round, making it more likely teams hold off.

Baker Mayfield is the first quarterback selected: +2700

Browns GM John Dorsey is playing this very close to the vest and the fact the media doesn't know the pick likely indicates head coach Hue Jackson is also in the dark (Jackson is known to leak info to the media). Adam Schefter has reported that Mayfield is in the mix at number one. This is worth a small bet at the minimum with a low risk/high reward proposition. The odds are extreme enough that if this bet hits, you'll more than likely be in the green on the day. 

Shaquem Griffin is the last player in the green room to be selected: -150

22 prospects are slated to be in the green room. Griffin's over/under is the 111th pick, which would place him in the fourth round. The other 21 attendees should be off the board by the end of the 2nd round. Even if Griffin goes higher than expected and a team takes him in the third, there's considerable cushion. Barring a last minute development, like the La'el Collins situation from a few years back, this should hit comfortably. 

Saquon Barkley is the second overall pick: +400

Bradley Chubb is the second overall pick: +600

The field (non QB or Barkley/Chubb) is the second overall pick: + 1000

This trio of picks is a built-in hedge. First, it works as a hedge on the top 5 QB bet listed above. Should the Giants take a QB at 2, that bet will more than likely hit. If the Giants were to trade the pick, it would be for a team moving up to take a QB, also hitting the top 5 bet. Should the Giants stand pat and take Barkley or Chubb, you net a profit. The field bet covers any odd scenario that would see the Giants taking a position player aside from Barkley or Chubb like Quenton Nelson or a DB (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, Denzel Ward)-which is still highly unlikely.

Bonus: The first overall pick does not cry prior to meeting Roger Goodell: -300

Here's one if you really want to let it hang. This isn't on my current card, but I make take a flier on this later, especially if the first pick leaks through the media prior to the draft. Seeing Sam Darnold or Josh Allen bawling upon hearing his name called would be the ultimate bad beat. But at least you'd have a great story.

Odds via

NCAA/NFL Best Bets

NFL Combine Best Bets